Teasing apart fine- and coarse-scale effects of environmental heterogeneity on tree species richness in Europe

The environmental heterogeneity–biodiversity relationship is generally hypothesised to be positive, with greater heterogeneity leading to greater biodiversity. However, the generality of positive environmental heterogeneity–species richness relationships is often debated, with some studies finding non-significant or even negative relationships. Negative relationships have primarily been found at fine spatial scales. Both negative and positive relationships have a basis in ecological theory. Environmental heterogeneity at coarse scales opens up niche space to allow more species to coexist; whereas high local heterogeneity, for instance in topography, may lead to increased local extinction due to micro-fragmentation, or dominance of species suited to heterogeneous conditions. However, it is difficult to attribute how much of the variance is explained at different scales within the same modelling framework.Here, we use a new data-aggregation method which enables us to include both fine- and coarse-scale environmental heterogeneity within the same analysis. Using this method, we were able to tease apart the fine- and coarse-grain effects of topographic heterogeneity on European tree species richness. At the coarse scale (0.5 degrees), we found a positive effect of range in elevation on tree species richness. However, when measuring range in elevation using a fine-scale moving window of radius 500 m, we found a negative relationship with tree species richness. This supports existing research that has shown negative relationships between environmental heterogeneity and species richness at finer spatial grains. Because we were able to include a measure of both local and landscape-scale topographic heterogeneity in the same model, for the first time we could fully capture the effects of both scales on coarse-grain species richness while accounting for the effect of the other scale

Operationalizing safe operating space for regional social-ecological systems

This study makes a first attempt to operationalize the safe operating space concept at a regional scale by considering the complex dynamics (e.g. non-linearity, feedbacks, and interactions) within a systems dynamic model (SD). We employ the model to explore eight ‘what if’ scenarios based on well-known challenges (e.g. climate change) and current policy debates (e.g. subsidy withdrawal). The findings show that the social-ecological system in the Bangladesh delta may move beyond a safe operating space when a withdrawal of a 50% subsidy for agriculture is combined with the effects of a 2 oC temperature increase and sea level rise. Further reductions in upstream river discharge in the Ganges would push the system towards a dangerous zone once a 3.5 oC temperature increase was reached. The social- ecological system in Bangladesh delta may be operated within a safe space by: 1) managing feedback (e.g. by reducing production costs) and the slow biophysical variables (e.g. temperature, rainfall) to increase the long-term resilience, 2) negotiating for transboundary water resources , and 3) revising global policies (e.g. withdrawal of subsidy) that negatively impact at regional scales. This study demonstrates how the concepts of tipping points, limits to adaptations, and boundaries for sustainable development may be defined in real world social-ecological systems

Unravelling the interrelationships between ecosystem services and human wellbeing in the Bangladesh delta

Coupled social and ecological systems need to be understood from a dynamic perspective in order to operationalise complexity concepts, such as tipping points, for sustainable ecosystem management. In this study, we strive to achieve this type of conceptual understanding through the analysis of the relationships (e.g. strength, nonlinearity) between the trends of ecosystem services (ES) and human wellbeing (HWB) between 1960 and 2010 in the south-west Bangladesh delta using generalized additive and logistic regression models. We use sequential principal components analysis to investigate the connectedness within the social–ecological system as a measure of resilience. We also use published literature to help develop a system dynamic framework in order to investigate how ES and HWB are interlinked. Overall, our results support previous work, which depicts that material wellbeing (basic materials for a good life) having a strong relationship with provisioning services, which in turn, show a weak relationship with the quality of life (security and health). Moreover, our analysis confirms the ‘Environmentalist’s Paradox’ that HWB has increased despite the deterioration in ES. However, our results suggest that provisioning services are not the only important reason for the increases in observed HWB, as these have also been substantially influenced by technology and capital investment (aid and subsidy). In addition, worsening trends in regulation services and in ‘slow’ variables such as climate suggest that the resilience of the overall social-ecological system is decreasing. Such changes may have severe consequences if they continue, for example, if temperatures exceed the upper physiological limits of key provisioning services (e.g. rice, fish) in the Bangladesh delta. These indicators all suggest that although in terms of HWB the deltaic social–ecological system may be successfully adapting to environmental change, it may also be close to transgressing critical ecological boundaries in the near future

Impacts of rising temperatures and farm management practices on global yields of 18 crops

Understanding the impact of changes in temperature and precipitation on crop yields is a vital step in developing policy and management options to feed the world. As most existing studies are limited to a few staple crops, we implemented global statistical models to examine the influence of weather and management practices on the yields of 18 crops, accounting for 70% of crop production by area and 65% by calorific intake. Focusing on the impact of temperature, we found considerable heterogeneity in the responses of yields across crops and countries. Irrigation was found to alleviate negative implications from temperature increases. Countries where increasing temperature causes the most negative impacts are typically the most food insecure, with the lowest calorific food supply and average crop yield. International action must be coordinated to raise yields in these countries through improvement and modernization of agricultural practices to counteract future adverse impacts of climate change

A systematic map of research exploring the effect of greenspace on mental health

The past 35 years has seen an accumulation of empirical evidence suggesting a positive association between greenspace and mental health. Existing reviews of evidence are narrow in scope, and do not adequately represent the broad range of disciplines working in this field. This study is the first systematic map of studies investigating greenspace effects on mental health. A total of 6059 papers were screened for their relevance, 276 of which met inclusion criteria for the systematic map.The map revealed several methodological limitations hindering the practical applications of research findings to public health. Critically, the majority of studies used cross-sectional mental health data which makes causal inference about greenspace effects challenging. There are also few studies on the micro-features that make up greenspaces (i.e., their “quality”), with most focussing only on “quantity” effects on mental health. Moreover, few studies adopted a multi-scale approach, meaning there is little evidence about at which spatial scale(s) the relationship exists. A geographic gap in study location was also identified, with the majority of studies clustered in European countries and the USA.Future research should account for both human and ecological perspectives of “quality” using objective and repeatable measures, and consider the potential of scale-dependent greenspace effects to ensure that management of greenspace is compatible with wider scale biodiversity targets. To establish the greenspace and metal health relationship across a life course, studies should make better use of longitudinal data, as this enables stronger inferences to be made than more commonly used cross-sectional data

Do ecosystem service maps and models meet stakeholders’ needs? A preliminary survey across sub-Saharan Africa

To achieve sustainability goals, it is important to incorporate ecosystem service (ES) information into decision-making processes. However, little is known about the correspondence between the needs of ES information users and the data provided by the researcher community. We surveyed stakeholders within sub-Saharan Africa, determining their ES data requirements using a targeted sampling strategy. Of those respondents utilising ES information (>90%; n=60), 27% report having sufficient data; with the remainder requiring additional data – particularly at higher spatial resolutions and at multiple points in time. The majority of respondents focus on provisioning and regulating services, particularly food and fresh water supply (both 58%) and climate regulation (49%). Their focus is generally at national scales or below and in accordance with data availability. Among the stakeholders surveyed, we performed a follow-up assessment for a sub-sample of 17 technical experts. The technical experts are unanimous that ES models must be able to incorporate scenarios, and most agree that ES models should be at least 90% accurate. However, relatively coarse-resolution (1–10 km2) models are sufficient for many services. To maximise the impact of future research, dynamic, multi-scale datasets on ES must be delivered alongside capacity-building efforts

Reddit: a novel data source for cultural ecosystem service studies

Social media sites have been gaining traction as a source of novel data for environmental research, particularly for cultural ecosystem service (CES) assessments. However, Reddit, a discussion-based site, has yet to establish itself as an important source of data for CES research, possibly due to researchers not being aware of its potential applications or because Reddit posts lack georeferencing information. Here, we demonstrate how researchers can search Reddit for CES datasets related to recreation and how specific pages on Reddit may provide data for other CES such as aesthetics. Using named-entity recognition, we developed an automated method of geocoding the approximate location of where images in Reddit posts were taken. Furthermore, we compare posts from Reddit and Flickr for a range of recreational activities and compare the content and textual metadata of images relating to hiking. Though there is potential for Reddit data to be used in spatial analysis, we highlight the limitations associated with georeferencing posts. We recommend that data from Reddit is best suited to assessing general trends in CES, either for a given service or place. By demonstrating the value of big data from Reddit we hope to encourage its inclusion in future CES and environmental research

Global impacts of energy demand on the freshwater resources of nations

The growing geographic disconnect between consumption of goods, the extraction and processing of resources, and the environmental impacts associated with production activities makes it crucial to factor global trade into sustainability assessments. Using an empirically validated environmentally extended global trade model, we examine the relationship between two key resources underpinning economies and human well-being—energy and freshwater. A comparison of three energy sectors (petroleum, gas, and electricity) reveals that freshwater consumption associated with gas and electricity production is largely confined within the territorial boundaries where demand originates. This finding contrasts with petroleum, which exhibits a varying ratio of territorial to international freshwater consumption, depending on the origin of demand. For example, although the United States and China have similar demand associated with the petroleum sector, international freshwater consumption is three times higher for the former than the latter. Based on mapping patterns of freshwater consumption associated with energy sectors at subnational scales, our analysis also reveals concordance between pressure on freshwater resources associated with energy production and freshwater scarcity in a number of river basins globally. These energy-driven pressures on freshwater resources in areas distant from the origin of energy demand complicate the design of policy to ensure security of fresh water and energy supply. Although much of the debate around energy is focused on greenhouse gas emissions, our findings highlight the need to consider the full range of consequences of energy production when designing policy